Though we are all unique individuals, the majority of our activities are driven by habits.
If your customers habits are to reorder after they run out of your product and you can see that, it's reasonable then to predict when they'll be buying again.
Even the best habits get broken though.
External and internal events can shift or wipe out regular habits which shows up as a behavior change.
Change is difficult to predict but it is noticeable. The earlier you notice it, the better chance you have to reverse or adapt to the change.
That might take the form of a promotion, a product change, marketing message shift, or any number of changes on your end.
Change is always happening, you need to be ready for it or be willing to react to it when you spot it.
One way to notice change early is to regularly review certain metrics. Some like daily sales or traffic fluctuate too much to be useful so you need something a bit more concrete.
Repeat Customer Insights includes a handful of harder metrics that fit. Average Order Value by order sequence, Latency, and many of the Cohort ones can help spot changes before they get too far.
Plus the app's insights will give you recommendations for how to turn around and improve those metrics.
Just whatever you do, don't give up, panic, or ignore change. That can only lead to harmful consequences.
Eric Davis
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If you haven't signed up for Repeat Customer Insights, it's an easy process. Just give it your Shopify store url and it'll walk you through the setup, import, and analysis process automatically. No code needed.